Publication

Some Domestic Environmental Effects of U.S. Agricultural Adjustments Under Liberalized Trade

A Preliminary Analysis

Description

This paper evaluates some of the environmental impacts on the U.S. of a trade liberalization scenario involving the elimination of all agricultural policy distortions (i.e., agricultural subsidies and tariffs) that were in place in the year 2000 in all trading countries (and no changes in environmental policies relative to 2000). This empirical simulation of a total trade liberalization scenario provides an upper bound on the possible market effects of more probable scenarios of partial trade liberalization. We find that, even for this extreme case scenario, the estimated changes in U.S. agricultural production are within the bounds of normal seasonal variation in U.S. agricultural commodity production as observed over the last thirty-five years.

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